Election Season Again - Who Will Win?

Andy Slaughter MP

It's election season again, with a General Election set for 8 June. Hammersmith MP Andy Slaughter, who defied his party's national setbacks in the 2015 General Election and was re-elected with a convincing majority, must fight once more to retain his seat.

We don't yet know who his opponents will be, but one thing is for sure - Andy Slaughter is a skilful politician who almost doubled his share of the vote at the last election. Even with Labour lagging in the polls, it will surely take an impressive Conservative candidate to unseat this well-established MP.

Thanks to Wikipedia, you can see in the chart below the changes in the share of the vote between 2010 and 2015.  Tory candidate Charlie Dewhirst increased his share of the vote by a couple of hundred votes, but not by nearly enough to win.

UKIP and the Greens both made a respectable showing, increasing their share considerably since 2010.

But the big story in Hammersmith in 2015 was - as elsewhere in the country - the huge collapse in the LibDem vote, with Millicent Scott winning just 2,224 votes, barely more than the Greens or UKIP. Most of the LibDem voters appear to have swung towards incumbent MP Andy Slaughter.

Hammersmith Conservatives will no doubt be hoping that they will benefit from Labour's poor poll numbers to challenge this Labour seat. They may also hope that, if the Lib Dems make something of a comeback (they surely can't do any worse), that an increased Lib Dem vote will be largely at the expense of Labour.

Does the outcome matter much for Shepherd's Bush? Arguably not. Local matters are still very much in the hands of our Council, and this will not change until the Council elections of 2018.

The Shepherd's Bush Blog offers a personal view on life in Shepherd's Bush. If you would like to contribute a story about our neighbourhood, email us at shepherdsbushblog(at)gmail.com.