General Election: Hammersmith - Who Will Win?

Constituency of Hammersmith

The Parliamentary constituency of Hammersmith was formed in 1983 and has been held by Labour ever since.  In 2010 the Conservatives came close-ish to taking the seat off of sitting MP Andy Slaughter, but lost by 3,500 votes.

Since then Andy Slaughter has steadily increased his majority and won again in 2017 with a "thumping majority" of 18,651 votes.  Charlie Dewhirst, the Conservative candidate, won just 14,724 votes, or 28.1% of the total - a swing away from the Tories of 8.3%.  

So, is this election a done deal for Hammersmith, or can any other candidate reasonably hope to challenge Andy Slaughter for the top job?

Labour - Andy Slaughter

Andy Slaughter

Andy Slaughter is a local - he grew up in Fulham and went to Latymer Upper School, a private school in Hammersmith.  He studied law at the University of Exeter, and, before entering Parliament, he was a barrister. 

Slaughter has been an MP since 2005 and was formerly the leader of Hammersmith and Fulham Council.  Until 2010, he was a minister in the Department for Transport, the Foreign Office and the Department for Business & Enterprise.

In the 2017 general election, he won Hammersmith again, with a large majority of 18,651 votes. In common with most voters in Hammersmith, he is a Remainer, though official Labour policy is not to repeal Article 50, but instead to host a second referendum. 

Xingang Wang

Conservatives - Xingang Wang

The Conservatives are historically the strongest challengers to Andy Slaughter, but the party has never won Hammersmith and their share of the vote has been shrinking since 2010.  The Tory candidate is Xingang Wang, who lives in Surrey, where he is a parish councillor.  He voted Remain, but "respects the referendum result", and also now the "need to get Brexit done”.  

Xingang Wang is a financial consultant and was formerly a civil engineer; his LinkedIn profile (which helpfully has a photo) describes him as "entrepreneur".  He studied at Imperial College London, the University of Oxford and also at Harvard.  He is married with three children.

Jessie Venegas

Lib Dems - Jessie Venegas

Jessie Venegas was born in Mexico and grew up in Colombia and Canada, where she studied Political Sciences at McMaster University.  She has lived in the UK for 12 years. She is currently a law and politics lecturer, and lives in Hammersmith.  She is standing for Parliament for the first time.

Jessie Venegas' LinkedIn profile doesn't say she is running for office, just that she is a "Research Assistant at European Parliament". In keeping with official LibDem policy, Jessie Venegas is a firm Remainer. 

In this year’s European Parliament elections, the Lib Dems earned the most votes in Hammersmith and Fulham. Historically the Lib Dems have never finished higher than a distant third in Hammersmith in a Parliamentary election but, if you're a firm Remainer, the Lib Dems could be a good tactical vote.

Greens - Alex Horn

Alex Horn is standing in Hammersmith for a second time, after the 2017 general election, in which he won 800 votes. He was born in London and works at St Mary’s Hospital in Paddington. His LinkedIn profile doesn't have a photo but it describes him as a "Renewables and Environment Professional". 

Brexit Party - James Keyse

James Keyse is a local - he has lived in Hammersmith for 31 years, and works in data analysis and project management. The Brexit party did not contest Hammersmith last time around, and they are surely unlikely to win this time, though they might take some votes away from the Conservatives, thus helping Labour.  If you're a committed Brexiteer, you might want to stick with the Tories.

Who will win?

The betting odds surely must be on Andy Slaughter. It is possible that the Tories might have a bounce, but Hammersmith isn't a pro-Brexit area, so this seems unlikely. Maybe the Lib Dems will scoop up some of the 70% of Hammersmith voters who voted remain, to topple Andy Slaughter.  However, since Slaughter is himself a strong Remainer, that also seems unlikely.

predictions by Martin Baxter

Local polling
Local trends are hard to fathom - there are no polls that I can find for voting intentions in Hammersmith.

Polls in some marginal London constituencies, such as Kensington, suggest that tactical voting could be decisive.  But we are not a marginal constituency.

Martin Baxter
The best source I can find is Martin Baxter's online electoral calculus (which may or may not be reliable), which suggests that Andy Slaughter has a "94% chance" of being re-elected. (If that link doesn't work, go to the main page and search under Seat Explorer, and search for Hammersmith)

What is pretty clear is that, while anything could happen, it would be a brave punter who bet money against our incumbent MP.

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